The upcoming Senate race in California is shaping up to be fierce, with former baseball star and Republican Steve Garvey and Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff leading the pack after Tuesday’s primary. The latest data from the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California Berkeley reveals a neck-and-neck race between Garvey and Schiff, with Garvey securing 27 percent of the vote and Schiff trailing slightly behind at 25 percent. Democrats Katie Porter and Barbara Lee lag at 19 percent and 8 percent, respectively.
California’s nonpartisan primary system allows the top two candidates to advance to the November runoff, regardless of party affiliation. This sets up an exciting showdown between Schiff and Garvey for the vacant seat by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Interestingly, this will result in a male senator representing California for the first time in over three decades.
Both Garvey and Schiff are vying for a full term in the Senate starting January 2025 and a partial term beginning this November. The Berkeley IGS survey shows an impressive surge in support for Garvey, particularly in the partial-term race, where he leads with 29 percent against Schiff’s 23 percent.
The significance of this Senate race cannot be overstated, as it offers Republicans a rare chance to compete on equal footing in a state dominated by Democrats. Despite their recent struggles, Republicans have an opportunity to break their losing streak, which has seen them fail to advance a single candidate to general elections in two out of California’s last three U.S. Senate races.
The advancement of Schiff and Garvey to the general election marks a significant shift in California politics, long dominated by veteran politicians like Feinstein. It also highlights the rivalry between Schiff and fellow Democrat Katie Porter, who sought the coveted spot in the general election.
Garvey, a Major League Baseball MVP who played for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, celebrated his victory with supporters in his hometown of Palm Desert. He warned Schiff not to underestimate him despite California’s Democratic leanings. He promised a campaign to resonate with voters across party lines on key issues such as inflation, homelessness, and rising crime rates.
Schiff’s victory celebration was marred by protests shouting “Free Palestine” and “Cease fire now,” forcing him to rush through his speech. This disruption serves as a stark reminder that contentious issues like the Israel-Hamas conflict could play a significant role in the upcoming general election.
Garvey’s victory owes much to Schiff and supportive super PACs that spent millions to boost his conservative credentials. The Berkeley IGS survey shows Garvey’s support is strong among older voters and Republicans. However, with a predominantly Democratic electorate in California and low voter turnout in the primary, particularly among younger voters, the general election remains unpredictable.
California’s 2016 U.S. Senate contest saw 2 million more voters in November than in the primary. Despite the state GOP’s recent struggles, no Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate has defeated a Democratic opponent since 1988. However, Garvey sees himself as a “conservative moderate” and plans to run a campaign that appeals beyond traditional party lines.
Despite facing scrutiny over his personal life during the campaign, Garvey remains confident about his chances in the general election. He believes he can connect with voters on both sides of the aisle, especially in his home state of California. The upcoming general election will ultimately decide who fills Feinstein’s seat in the Senate, setting up an intense campaign season ahead.